The January jobs report blew away expectations (+353,000 vs +180,000 est.). Job gains were broad-based last month, with the biggest gains in professional and business services (74,000), health care (70,000), retail trade (45,200), government (36,000) and manufacturing (23,000).
· Employment in temporary help services was up 3,900.
· Average hourly earnings rose 0.6% for the month, above analysts’ expectations. *See additional info on this in the summary
· The JOLTS report estimates that there are 9.0 mm open jobs, little changed from November.
*Wage growth (+.6%) was up more than expected, but I think the number will be adjusted down next month. I have on theory on this.....
Wage growth unexpectedly accelerated last month, with average hourly earnings — a key measure of inflation — rising 0.6%, double what economists had expected. On an annual basis, wages rose 4.5% in January. However, that coincided with a drop in the average hours worked, which fell by 0.2-hour last month to 34.1 hours.
The BLS uses this formula to calculate wage gains:
All employee payroll divided by All employee hours
Since employee hours worked fell unexpectedly last month, I would not be surprised if the .6% rise in wages is adjusted down next month.
For a deeper dive….
· A more encompassing measure of unemployment (U6) that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons is up .1% to 7.2%.
· Prime age labor force participation rate (ages 25-54) was up .1% to 83.3%.
· The overall labor force participation was flat 62.5%. This is still .7% below the level of February 2020.
· In January, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm
payrolls rose by 19 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $34.55. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.5 percent. In January, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 13 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $29.66.
· The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased by 0.2 hour to 34.1 hours in January and is down by 0.5 hour over the year. In manufacturing, the average workweek was unchanged at 39.8 hours, and overtime edged down by 0.1 hour to 2.7 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased by 0.2 hour to 33.5 hours.
· APD is reported that 107,000 jobs were added last month. A big disparity with the BLS number.
Source: ADP, BLS, CNBC, Fox News
JOB OPENINGS AND LABOR TURNOVER – DECEMBER 2023
The number of job openings changed little at 9.0 million on the last business day of December, the U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.6 million and 5.4 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.4 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) changed little. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the total nonfarm sector, by industry, and by establishment size class.
Job Openings
On the last business day of December, the number of job openings changed little at 9.0 million; this measure is down from a series high of 12.0 million in March 2022. Over the month, the rate was unchanged at 5.4 percent. Job openings increased in professional and business services (+239,000) but decreased in wholesale trade (-83,000).
Hires
In December, the number and rate of hires were little changed at 5.6 million and 3.6 percent, respectively. The number of hires decreased in health care and social assistance (-119,000) but increased in state and local government, excluding education (+35,000).
Separations
Total separations include quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. The quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations include separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm.
The number of total separations in December changed little at 5.4 million, and the rate was unchanged at 3.4 percent. Over the month, the number of total separations decreased in health care and social assistance (-91,000) but increased in wholesale trade (+39,000).
In December, the number of quits changed little at 3.4 million, and the rate was unchanged at 2.2 percent. The number of quits decreased in health care and social assistance (-71,000) and in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-35,000). The number of quits increased in wholesale trade (+63,000).
In December, the number of layoffs and discharges changed little at 1.6 million, and the rate was 1.0 percent for the fourth month in a row. The number of layoffs and discharges increased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+43,000) and in state and local government, excluding education (+18,000).
The number of other separations changed little in December at 358,000.
Establishment Size Class
In December, the job openings, hires, and total separations rates changed little for establishments with 1 to 9 employees. The job openings rate increased for establishments with 5,000 or more employees.
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The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey estimates for January 2024 are scheduled to be released on Wednesday, March 6, 2024, at 10:00 a.m. (ET).