July Jobs Slump

📊 July 2025 Employment Situation Report (BLS)

·        Nonfarm payrolls increased a seasonally adjusted 73,000 for the month, lower than the estimate for 110,000.  May and June job totals were revised down to 258,000.

·        Those getting jobs showed little change in terms of full time or part-time hires. 

·        Healthcare (+55,000), Retail Trade (+15,700) led the way in terms of employment gains in July.  The Federal Government shed 10,000 jobs.

📈 June 2025 JOLTS Report

·       On the JOLTS side June figures showed job openings slipped to 7.437 million from 7.7 million in May while hires also fell to 5.204 million, signaling cooling demand for labor. 

The July Jobs report showed the U.S. economy added just seventy‑three thousand nonfarm payroll jobs, well below consensus forecasts of around one hundred ten thousand and came alongside massive downward revisions subtracting a combined 258 000 jobs from May and June.

The U-6 unemployment rate, which includes discouraged and underemployed workers, rose to 7.9% in July, up from 7.7% in June. This uptick suggests more Americans are settling for part-time or contract work. The economy needs to create roughly 180 000 to 200 000 jobs per month just to keep pace with working‑age population growth. Wage growth remains modest: average hourly pay rose 0.3 percent in July and is up around 3.9 percent year‑over‑year, compared with June’s 0.2 percent monthly gain and 3.7 percent annually.

Long‑term unemployment, those jobless for 27 weeks or more, increased by about 179 000 in July to 1.8 million, now accounting for roughly 25 percent of all unemployed workers. 

Temporary help demand appears to inch back given the overall softening in hiring, though specific temp help data for July remain limited.

For a deeper dive….

·       A more encompassing measure of unemployment (U6) that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons jumped by .2% to 7.9%.

·       Prime age labor force participation rate (ages 25-54) was down .1% 83.4%.

·       The overall labor force participation held was down by .1% to 62.2%.  This is 1.2% below the level of February 2020.

·       Average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls rose by 12 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $36.44 in July. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.9 percent. In July, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 8 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $31.34.

·       The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours in July. In manufacturing, the average workweek held at 40.1 hours, and overtime edged down to 2.8 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 33.7 hours in July.

·       APD reported that 104,000 jobs were added in July.

Source: ADP, BLS, CNBC, Fox News

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/jolts_02092021.htm

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2015/article/industry-employment-and-output-projections-to-2024.htm

JOB OPENINGS AND LABOR TURNOVER – JUNE 2025

The number of job openings was little changed at 7.4 million in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, both hires and total separations were little changed at 5.2 million and 5.1 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.1 million) were little changed while layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) were unchanged.

This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the total nonfarm sector, by industry, and by establishment size class. Job openings include all positions that are open on the last business day of the month. Hires and separations include all changes to the payroll during the entire month.

Job Openings

The number and rate of job openings were little changed at 7.4 million and 4.4 percent, respectively, in June. The number of job openings decreased in accommodation and food services (-308,000), health care and social assistance (-244,000), and finance and insurance (-142,000). The number of job openings increased in retail trade (+190,000), information (+67,000), and state and local government education (+61,000).

Hires

In June, the number and rate of hires were little changed at 5.2 million and 3.3 percent, respectively. The number of hires decreased in arts, entertainment, and recreation (-42,000).

Separations

Total separations include quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations include separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm.

The number and rate of total separations in June were little changed at 5.1 million and 3.2 percent, respectively. Total separations decreased in state and local government education (-39,000) and in federal government (-20,000).

In June, the number of quits was little changed at 3.1 million. The rate of quits remained unchanged at 2.0 percent. The number of quits decreased in professional and business services (-114,000), state and local government education (-20,000), and federal government (-5,000).

The number and rate of layoffs and discharges in June were unchanged at 1.6 million and 1.0 percent, respectively. Layoffs and discharges decreased in arts, entertainment, and recreation (-35,000) and in state and local government education (-19,000). The number of layoffs and discharges increased in mining and logging (+5,000).

The number of other separations was little changed at 314,000 in June.

Establishment Size Class

In June, establishments with 1 to 9 employees and establishments with 5,000 or more employees showed little or no change in job openings, hires, and separations rates.

May 2025 Revisions

The number of job openings for May was revised down by 57,000 to 7.7 million, the number of hires was revised down by 38,000 to 5.5 million, and the number of total separations was revised down by 29,000 to 5.2 million. Within separations, the number of quits was revised down by 23,000 to 3.3 million, and the number of layoffs and discharges was revised up by 10,000 to 1.6 million. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)

____________

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey estimates for July 2025 are scheduled to be released on Wednesday, September 3, 2025, at 10:00 a.m. (ET).