📊 Employment Situation Through October 2025

In the absence of the BLS Employment Situation report, I gathered data from some other sources in an effort to shine some light on the current state of the US Employment market. Generally, The U.S. labor market is cooling, though not collapsing by any measure.

What the numbers tell us: According to the ADP Research Institute report, private-sector employment rose by +42,000 jobs in October. But that headline masks a familiar pattern: the gains were concentrated in a few industries, while several others continue to contract. For example:

• Goods-producing added ~ 9,000 jobs (natural resources/mining +7,000; construction +5,000; manufacturing −3,000) ADP Media Center+1

• Service-providing added ~ 33,000 jobs: trade/transportation/utilities +47,000; education/health services +26,000; financial activities +11,000; but information −17,000, professional/business services −15,000, leisure/hospitality −6,000, and “other services” −13,000. ADP Media Center+2PR Newswire+2

• The unemployment rate is estimated to have edged up to ~ 4.36% (rounded 4.4%) in October (per the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago) from ~4.35% the prior month. Reuters

• The number of new unemployment insurance claims remains historically low (in the ~200-250k range). The 4 week moving average is at 227,000.

• The long-term unemployed share is creeping higher, indicating that while people may still be finding jobs, a growing portion of the jobless are getting stuck in longer spells. There are 1.9 million unemployed for 27 weeks or longer.

• For staffing and temporary help employment, a traditional “canary in the coal mine” for hiring caution, is showing a slight improvement. The American Staffing Association’s Staffing Index shows employment in the staffing industry grew modestly in the week of October 13–19 (index value ~ 92, up ~1.1% month-over-month, and ~2.2% year-over-year) but remains far from brisk growth. American Staffing Association Meanwhile, longer-term data from the National Employment Law Project show that temporary-agency jobs over the years have grown faster than overall employment, but that may now be stalling. National Employment Law Project+1

Bottom line: The U.S. labor market no longer looks “too hot”, it’s inching toward “just okay” or even “softening.” For staffing companies and temporary help firms this is especially meaningful as after 3 years of declines, they’re seeing modest gains.

The following chart is compiled from the latest BLS release. The BLS will release October data with November's report will be released on Tuesday December 16th.