As we head into the holiday's, the US jobs market overall held steady.
The November jobs report came in a little better than expected (+199,000 vs 180,000 est.) with another downward revision for September (-35,000). About 40,000 of the jobs “created” were autoworkers returning to work after the strike settled.
Wages were up a bit (.4%) but so was productivity (5.2% 3Q23). As someone who holds a degree in Economics, US productivity is key to keeping inflation in check without hurting the labor market and overall economy. We may be experiencing this now.
Key Highlight's:
The talent force grew by 532,000.
Employment in temporary help services was down -13,600.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% for the month, above analysts’ expectations.
Healthcare (+58,000) and Government (+51,000) were the big winners this month. Manufacturing (35,000) was done mostly due to the auto worker’s strike.
The JOLTS report estimates that there are 8.7 mm open jobs, down 617,000 from September’s total. Over the month, job openings decreased in health care and social assistance (-236,000), finance and insurance (-168,000), and real estate and rental and leasing (-49,000). Job openings increased in information (+39,000).
In terms of interest rates, the Fed continued its pause, and some economists believe the Fed will start cutting rates sometime next year.
The APD reported anemic employment growth for the third month in a row.
The productivity of American workers rose by a revised 5.2% annual rate in the third quarter. It is the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2020. Excluding the pandemic era, it’s the fastest since the fourth quarter of 2009. This is extremely encouraging.
For a deeper dive….
· A more encompassing measure of unemployment (U6) that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons is down .2% to 7.0%.
· Prime age labor force participation rate (ages 25-54) was unchanged at 83.3%.
· The overall labor force participation was up .1% to 62.8%. This is still .4% below the level of February 2020.
· In November, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 12 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $34.10. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.0 percent. In November, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 12 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $29.30.
· The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours in November. In manufacturing, the average workweek was unchanged at 40.0 hours, and overtime remained at 2.9 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 33.8 hours.
· APD is reported that only 103,000 jobs were added last month.
Source: ADP, BLS, CNBC, Fox News
JOB OPENINGS AND LABOR TURNOVER – OCTOBER 2023
The number of job openings decreased to 8.7 million on the last business day of October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations changed little at 5.9 million and 5.6 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.6 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) changed little. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the total nonfarm sector, by industry, and by establishment size class.
Job Openings
On the last business day of October, the number of job openings decreased to 8.7 million (-617,000). The job openings rate, at 5.3 percent, decreased by 0.3 percentage point over the month and 1.1 points over the year. Over the month, job openings decreased in health care and social assistance (-236,000), finance and insurance (-168,000), and real estate and rental and leasing (-49,000). Job openings increased in information (+39,000).
Hires
In October, the number and rate of hires changed little at 5.9 million and 3.7 percent, respectively. The number of hires decreased in accommodation and food services (-110,000).
Separations
Total separations include quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. The quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations include separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm.
The number of total separations in October changed little at 5.6 million, and the rate was unchanged at 3.6 percent for the fifth consecutive month. Over the month, the number of total separations increased in professional and business services (+121,000).
In October, the number of quits changed little at 3.6 million, and the rate was 2.3 percent for the fourth consecutive month. The number of quits increased in professional and business services (+97,000).
In October, the number of layoffs and discharges changed little at 1.6 million, and the rate was unchanged at 1.0 percent. The number of layoffs and discharges changed little in all industries.
The number of other separations changed little in October at 377,000.
Establishment Size Class
In October, the job openings, hires, and total separations rates changed little for establishments with 1 to 9 employees. The quits rate and total separations rate decreased for establishments with 5,000 or more
employees.
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The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey estimates for November 2023 are scheduled to be released on Wednesday, January 3, 2024, at 10:00 a.m. (ET).