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  • Writer's pictureNick Andriacchi

September Jobs Report

So, is recruiting getting any easier?

While last month’s labor participation rate was disappointing (net 57,000 people left the workforce), jobs were still being added (+263k) according to the Sept. jobs report.


Remember, the high Inflation we face today is largely a supply-side issue caused be too much monetary and fiscal stimulus that kept people out of the talent force. Staffers are leading the way to curing inflation long-term – not the FED. Raising interest rates so drastically is a jobs killer. Bringing people back into the workforce to meet demand will bring down inflation without killing the economy.

The August JOLTS report was very interesting. The BLS reported that there were 10mm jobs available, which is down sharply from July (-1,1mm). This may be an indicator that open jobs are being filled or employers are cutting back on hiring. I think it’s a little of both.


Here is a summary of both reports.





September Employment Summary


· Temporary Help continues to roll with another nice gain last month. Leisure and Hospitality had another big gain and Healthcare employment is back to its pre-pandemic level.

· In September, 5.2 percent of employed persons teleworked because of the coronavirus pandemic, down from 6.5 percent in the prior month. In May 2020, the first month these data were collected, 35.4 percent of employed persons teleworked because of the coronavirus pandemic.

· The JOLTS report showed a big drop in job openings in August. While still a workers market, I believe the drop is in part due to more people returning to the workforce (hiring was also up).

Analysis of the September Employment Report

· A more encompassing measure of unemployment (U6) that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons is at 6.7%.

· Prime age labor force participation rate (ages 25-54) was up this month to 82.7%. This is a little disappointing after the nice gain last month. It is still off by just .4% from February 2020, the last month before the pandemic started.

· The overall labor force participation is 62.3% sown .1% from last month. This number is disappointing as it still sits 1.1% below the level of February 2020.

· In September, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 10 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $32.46. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 5.0 percent. In September, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 10 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $27.77.

· In September, the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was 34.5 hours. In manufacturing, the average workweek for all

employees was unchanged at 40.3 hours, and overtime held at 3.2 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.1 hour to 34.0 hours.

· APD is reported that 208,000 jobs were added in last month.

Source: ADP, BLS, CNBC, ABC News

JOB OPENINGS AND LABOR TURNOVER – AUGUST 2022

The number of job openings decreased to 10.1 million on the last business day of August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires and total separations were little changed at 6.3 million and 6.0 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (4.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.5 million) were little changed. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings,

hires, and separations for the total nonfarm sector, by industry, and by establishment size class.

Job Openings

On the last business day of August, the number and rate of job openings decreased to 10.1 million (-1.1 million) and 6.2 percent, respectively. The largest decreases in job openings were in health care and social assistance (-236,000), other services (-183,000), and retail trade (-143,000).

Hires

In August, the number of hires was little changed at 6.3 million, and the rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent. Hires decreased in federal government (-8,000).

Separations

Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm.

In August, the number and rate of total separations were little changed at 6.0 million and 3.9 percent, respectively. Total separations increased in accommodation and food services (+175,000).

In August, the number of quits was little changed at 4.2 million, and the rate was unchanged at 2.7 percent. Quits increased in accommodation and food services (+119,000) but decreased in professional and business services (-94,000).

In August, the number and rate of layoffs and discharges were little changed at 1.5 million and 1.0 percent, respectively. Layoffs and discharges were little changed in all industries.

The number of other separations was little changed in August at 358,000. Other separations decreased in information (-6,000) and in federal government (-3,000).

Establishment Size Class

In August, the job openings rate decreased in all establishment size classes except those with 9 or less employees, which changed little. Both the layoffs and discharges rate and the total separations rate decreased in establishments with 250 to 999 employees. The quits rate increased in establishments with 1,000 to 4,999 employees. For a more in-depth description of the JOLTS establishment size class estimates, please visit:

www.bls.gov/jlt/sizeclassmethodology.htm.


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