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  • Writer's pictureNick Andriacchi

November 2022 Jobs Report

The November jobs number beat economists’ estimates and wage gains were exceptionally strong. Unemployment remained steady at 3.7% and labor participation was down again. The labor participation number continues to be troubling.


Despite all the jobs available and robust wage gains, the November reports showed that participation fell one-tenth of a percentage point to 62.1%, tied for the lowest level of the year as the labor force fell by 186,000 and is now slightly below the February 2020 level.

Even worse, the number of working-age people not in the labor force rose by 359,000 in November and is back over 100 million. As far as Gen Z goes, roughly half a million fewer 20- to 24-year-olds are in the labor force now versus pre-pandemic.


Where have they gone? It could be in part the “side-hustle” gig economy type jobs that may not show up in the report. But I doubt it covers all of the losses.


Always remember: If you are not in the labor force or actively looking for work, you are not counted as unemployed.


Another number that really jumps out is temporary help. October’s number was revised down and November’s number shows another big loss in contract positions. Temp help historically a leading indicator for the employment market so it will be interesting to see if this is just a blip or a precursor to a slow down in the labor market.




On the last business day of October, the number of job openings edged down to 10.3 million (-353,000).


Big job gainers by industry included health care, government, and leisure and hospitality.


The Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of inflation, increased by 7.7% year-over-year in October. This is a smaller increase from the 8.2% annual increase in September. Wages increased by 5.1% year-over-year.


Analysis of the November Employment Report


· A more encompassing measure of unemployment (U6) that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons is up to 6.7%.


· Prime age labor force participation rate (ages 25-54) was down again this month to 82.4%. It is still off by .7% from February 2020, the last month before the pandemic started.


· The overall labor force participation remained was down .1% at 62.1%. This number is disappointing as it still sits 1.2% below the level of February 2020.


· In November, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 18 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $32.82. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 5.1 percent. In November, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 19 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $28.10.


· In November, the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls declined by 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours. In manufacturing, the average workweek for all employees decreased by 0.2 hour to 40.2 hours, and overtime declined by 0.1 hour to 3.1 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased by 0.1 hour to 33.9 hours.


· APD is reported that 127,000 jobs were added in last month.


Source: ADP, BLS, CNBC, ABC News




JOB OPENINGS AND LABOR TURNOVER – OCTOBER 2022


The number of job openings edged down to 10.3 million on the last business day of October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month the number of hires and total separations changed little at 6.0 million and 5.7 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (4.0 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.4 million) changed little. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the total nonfarm sector, by industry, and by establishment size class.

Job Openings


On the last business day of October, the number of job openings edged down to 10.3 million (-353,000). The rate changed little at 6.3 percent but was 1.0 percentage points lower than its peak in March 2022. In October, job openings decreased in state and local government, excluding education (-101,000); nondurable goods manufacturing (-95,000); and federal government (-61,000). The number of job openings increased in other services (+76,000) and in finance and insurance (+70,000).


Hires


In October, the number and rate of hires changed little at 6.0 million and 3.9 percent, respectively. Hires changed little in all industries.


Separations


Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm.


In October, the number of total separations changed little at 5.7 million, and the rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent. The number of total separations changed little in all industries.


In October, the number and rate of quits were little changed at 4.0 million and 2.6 percent, respectively. In October, quits decreased in information (-29,000).


In October, the number of layoffs and discharges changed little at 1.4 million, and the rate was unchanged at 0.9 percent. Layoffs and discharges decreased in federal government (-3,000).


The number of other separations were little changed in October at 270,000. Other separations decreased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-14,000) and in durable goods manufacturing (-8,000). Other separations increased in real estate and rental and leasing (+7,000).


Establishment Size Class


In October, the job openings rate decreased in establishments with 1,000 to 4,999 employees. The total separations rate decreased in establishments with 5,000 or more employees. The layoffs and discharges rate increased in establishments with 1 to 9 employees. For a more in-depth description of the JOLTS establishment size class estimates, please visit www.bls.gov/jlt/sizeclassmethodology.htm.

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The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey estimates for November 2022 are scheduled to be released on Wednesday, January 4, 2023, at 10:00 a.m. (ET).



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