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  • Writer's pictureNick Andriacchi

May's Goldilocks Jobs Report

Goldilocks worked her magic in May!



For business: Prime age (24 – 55 years old) labor participation increased to 83.4% as more people in this age group re-entered the workforce.


For the Fed: This contains enough data to not raise rates in June. Unemployment climbed to 3.7% and wages were up only .3% last month.


I hope the Fed takes notice when they meet about interest rates later in the month.



For a deeper dive….

· A more encompassing measure of unemployment (U6) that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons is up to 6.7%.


· Prime age labor force participation rate (ages 25-54) was up .1% to 83.4%.


· The overall labor force participation was flat at 62.6%. This number is disappointing as it still sits .6% below the level of February 2020.


· In May, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 11 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $33.44. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.3 percent. In May, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 13 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $28.75.


· The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged down by 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours in May. In manufacturing, the average workweek was unchanged at 40.1 hours, and overtime edged up by 0.1 hour to 3.0 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls remained at 33.8 hours.


· APD is reported that 278,000 jobs were added last month.


Source: ADP, BLS, CNBC, Fox News




JOB OPENINGS AND LABOR TURNOVER – April 2023


The number of job openings edged up to 10.1 million on the last business day of April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, the number of hires changed little at 6.1 million. Total separations decreased to 5.7 million. Within separations, quits (3.8 million) changed little, while layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) decreased. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the total nonfarm sector, by industry, and by establishment size class.


Job Openings


On the last business day of April, the number of job openings edged up to 10.1 million (+358,000). The job openings rate was little changed at 6.1 percent. In April, job openings increased in retail trade (+209,000); health care and social assistance (+185,000); and transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+154,000).


Hires


In April, the number of hires was little changed at 6.1 million, and the rate held at 3.9 percent. Hires decreased in information (-37,000).


Separations


Total separations include quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations include separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm.


The number of total separations decreased to 5.7 million (-286,000) in April, and the rate was little changed at 3.7 percent. Over the month, the number of total separations was little changed in all industries.


In April, the number and rate of quits changed little at 3.8 million and 2.4 percent, respectively. The number of quits increased in wholesale trade (+29,000) but decreased in state and local government, excluding education (-18,000).


In April, the number and rate of layoffs and discharges decreased to 1.6 million (-264,000) and 1.0 percent, respectively. Layoffs and discharges decreased in construction (-113,000) and in information (-33,000).


The number of other separations was little changed in April at 333,000. Other separations increased in health care and social assistance (+24,000), state and local government, excluding education (+10,000), and mining and logging (+2,000). Other separations decreased in accommodation and food services

(-18,000) and in arts, entertainment, and recreation (-3,000).


Establishment Size Class


In April, establishments with 1 to 9 employees saw an increase in their job openings rate and a decrease in their layoffs and discharges rate. Establishments with more than 5,000 employees saw an increase in both their job openings and hires rates.

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The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey estimates for May 2023 are scheduled to be released on Thursday, July 6, 2023, at 10:00 a.m. (ET).

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