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  • Writer's pictureNick Andriacchi

Jobs Cool Off In The Summer Heat


Analysis of July Employment Report



736,000 people entered or reentered the workforce in August with noticeable gains among folks under 25 and over 55. Those groups have been slower to reenter the workforce than the 25 – 54-year-olds.


The numbers are finally reflecting what staffers have known for months. The job market is slower. Employers are cutting back on hiring and many of those that are hiring, it’s a slower process.


QUICK SLAPSHOT:


· 736,000 people entered the workforce.


· Employment in temporary help services continued to trend down (-19,000) and has declined by 242,000 since its peak in March 2022.


· Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% for the month, good for a 4.3% annual pace.


· Employment continued to trend up in healthcare, leisure and hospitality, social assistance, and construction. Employment in transportation and warehousing declined.


· The JOLTS report estimates that there are 8.8 mm open jobs, considerably lower than June. Quits again fell noticeably as employees have become more reluctant to change jobs.




· A more encompassing measure of unemployment (U6) that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons is down to 7.1%.


· Prime age labor force participation rate (ages 25-54) was up .1% to 83.5%.


· The overall labor force participation was up .2% to 62.8%. This is encouraging and just .4% below the level of February 2020.


· In August, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 8 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $33.82. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.3 percent. In August, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 6 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $29.00.


· The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours in August. In manufacturing, the average workweek was 40.1 hours for the fifth month in a row, and overtime edged down by 0.1 hour to 3.0 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 33.8 hours.


· APD is reported that 177,000 jobs were added last month.


Source: ADP, BLS, CNBC, Fox News



JOB OPENINGS AND LABOR TURNOVER – JULY 2023


The number of job openings edged down to 8.8 million on the last business day of July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations changed little at 5.8 million and 5.5 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.5 million) decreased, while layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) changed little. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the total nonfarm sector, by industry, and by establishment size class.

Job Openings


On the last business day of July, the number of job openings edged down to 8.8 million (-338,000), while the rate changed little at 5.3 percent. Over the month, job openings decreased in professional and business services (-198,000); health care and social assistance (-130,000); state and local government, excluding education (-67,000); state and local government education (-62,000); and federal government (-27,000). By contrast, job openings increased in information (+101,000) and in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+75,000).





Hires


In July, the number and rate of hires changed little at 5.8 million and 3.7 percent, respectively. The number of hires changed little in all industries.


Separations


Total separations include quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations include separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm.


The number and rate of total separations in July were little changed at 5.5 million and 3.5 percent, respectively. Over the month, the number of total separations decreased in accommodation and food services (-132,000).


In July, the number of quits decreased to 3.5 million (-253,000), while the rate changed little at 2.3 percent. The number of quits declined in accommodation and food services (-166,000); wholesale trade (-27,000); and arts, entertainment, and recreation (-17,000). The number of quits increased in state and local government education (+18,000).


In July, the number of layoffs and discharges changed little at 1.6 million, and the rate held at 1.0 percent. The number of layoffs and discharges changed little in all industries.


The number of other separations was little changed in July at 378,000.


Establishment Size Class


In July, establishments with 1 to 9 employees saw little change in all data elements. Establishments with more than 5,000 employees had decreases in their quits rates and total separations rates.

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The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey estimates for August 2023 are scheduled to be released on Tuesday, October 3, 2023, at 10:00 a.m. (ET).

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