The December jobs report came in a little better than expected (+216,000 vs 180,000 est.) with again downward revisions for October (-45,000) and November (-26,000). Downward revisions have been fairly consistent over the last year. About 52,000 of the new jobs were in government.
Cautiously Optimistic for 2024
December caps off a very soft year for contract staffing. The uncertainty that came with higher interest rates, a pullback in technology spend, and lack of quality talent were the biggest reasons.
2 of these 3 factors should ease coming 2024. Unless inflation flares up again, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates between 75 – 100 basis points this year. Technology budgets are expected to increase this year – which should spark demand for contract roles. Finding talent will be easier but still tight. As the song goes, “2 out of 3 ain’t bad”.
· Employment in temporary help services was down -33,600.
· Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% for the month, above analysts’ expectations.
· Education (+41,000), Government (+52,000) and Leisure (40,000) were the big winners last month.
· The JOLTS report estimates that there are 8.8 mm open jobs, about the same as October.
For a deeper dive….
· A more encompassing measure of unemployment (U6) that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons is up .1% to 7.0%.
· Prime age labor force participation rate (ages 25-54) was down .1% to 83.2%.
· The overall labor force participation was down .3% to 62.5%. This is still .7% below the level of February 2020.
· In December, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 15 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $34.27. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.1 percent. In December, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 10 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $29.42.
· The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged down by 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours in December. In manufacturing, the average workweek was little changed at 39.8 hours, and overtime remained at 2.9 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged down by 0.1 hour to 33.7
hours.
· APD is reported that 164,000 jobs were added last month.
Source: ADP, BLS, CNBC, Fox News
JOB OPENINGS AND LABOR TURNOVER – NOVEMBER 2023
The number of job openings changed little at 8.8 million on the last business day of November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations decreased to 5.5 million and 5.3 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.5 million) edged down and layoffs and discharges (1.5 million) changed little. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the total nonfarm sector, by industry, and by establishment size class.
Job Openings
On the last business day of November, the number of job openings changed little at 8.8 million; this measure is down from a series high of 12.0 million in March 2022. The job openings rate was unchanged at 5.3 percent. Over the month, job openings decreased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-128,000) and in federal government (-58,000). Job openings increased in wholesale trade (+63,000).
Hires
In November, the number of hires decreased to 5.5 million (-363,000). The hires rate was little changed at 3.5 percent. The number of hires decreased in professional and business services (-163,000).
Separations
Total separations include quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. The quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations include separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm.
The number of total separations in November decreased to 5.3 million (-292,000), and the rate was little changed at 3.4 percent. Over the month, the number of total separations decreased in professional and business services (-158,000) and in educational services (-28,000).
In November, the number of quits edged down to 3.5 million (-157,000). The rate was little changed at 2.2 percent. The number of quits decreased in professional and business services (-77,000) and in educational services (-23,000).
In November, the number of layoffs and discharges changed little at 1.5 million, and the rate was unchanged at 1.0 percent. The number of layoffs and discharges decreased in durable goods manufacturing (-18,000). The number of other separations changed little in November at 342,000.
Establishment Size Class
In November, the job openings, hires, and total separations rates changed little for establishments with 1 to 9 employees. The quits rate and total separations rate increased for establishments with 5,000 or more employees.
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The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey estimates for December 2023 are scheduled to be released on Tuesday, January 30, 2024, at 10:00 a.m. (ET).