There was a substantial downward revision in jobs gains for the previous two months. The BLS cut June and July’s total by 86,000. JOLTS jobs openings are about 500,000 from the initial number reported in July.
The unemployment rate is 4.2%.
U6 or what economists deem the “real” unemployment rate edged up to 7.9%, its highest reading since October 2021.
Average hourly earnings rebounded, rising 0.4% last month, a bit higher than expected.
The August 2024 employment report showed modest job growth, with 142,000 jobs added, falling short of economists' expectations of 160,000. The unemployment rate edged down slightly to 4.2%, and wage growth remained steady at 0.4% month-over-month, bringing the annual increase to 3.8%.
The household survey, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate and is often more volatile than the survey of establishments, showed employment growth of 168,000. This is tilted toward part-time employment, which increased by 527,000, while full-time fell by 438,000.
A notable decline occurred in the temporary help services sector, a leading indicator of labor market health. This sector shed 18,000 jobs in August. This does run counter with what I am seeing in smaller staffing as they are adding jobs.
The headline for the JOLTS report is a little misleading. The report showed that available positions fell to 7.67 million on the month, off 237,000 from June’s downwardly revised number (-274,000) and the lowest level since January 2021.
The revisions for June and July job growth (-86,000), along with downward revisions to the JOLTS report, also revealed weaker figures than initially reported, reinforcing the narrative of a gradually decelerating labor market.
For a deeper dive….
· A more encompassing measure of unemployment (U6) that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons jumped .1% to 7.9%.
· Prime age labor force participation rate (ages 25-54) was down .1% to 83.9%.
· The overall labor force participation held steady at 62.7%. This is still .5% below the level of February 2020.
· In August, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 14 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $35.21. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.8 percent. In August, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 11 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $30.27.
· The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.3hours in August. In manufacturing, the average workweek changed little at 40.0 hours, and overtime edged up by 0.1 hour to 3.0 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls remained at 33.7 hours.
· APD is reported that 99,000 jobs were added in July. 23,000 less than July.
Source: ADP, BLS, CNBC, Fox News
JOB OPENINGS AND LABOR TURNOVER – JULY 2024
The number of job openings was little changed at 7.7 million on the last business day of July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires changed little at 5.5 million. Total separations increased to 5.4 million. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.8 million) changed little. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the total nonfarm sector, by industry, and by establishment size class.
Job Openings
On the last business day of July, the number of job openings was little changed at 7.7 million and was down by 1.1 million over the year. The job openings rate, at 4.6 percent, changed little in July. The number of job openings decreased in health care and social assistance (-187,000); state and local government, excluding education (-101,000); and transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-88,000). Job openings increased in professional and business services (+178,000) and in federal government (+28,000).
Hires
In July, the number and rate of hires changed little at 5.5 million and 3.5 percent, respectively. Hires increased in accommodation and food services (+156,000) but decreased in federal government (-8,000).
Separations
Total separations include quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations include separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm.
The number of total separations in July increased to 5.4 million (+336,000). The total separations rate was little changed at 3.4 percent. Total separations increased in health care and social assistance (+108,000).
In July, the number of quits was essentially unchanged at 3.3 million but was down by 338,000 over the year. Over the month, the quits rate changed little at 2.1 percent. Quits increased in information (+16,000).
In July, the number and rate of layoffs and discharges changed little at 1.8 million and 1.1 percent, respectively. Layoffs and discharges increased in accommodation and food services (+75,000) and in finance and insurance (+21,000).
The number of other separations increased to 381,000 (+71,000) in July.
Establishment Size Class
In July, for establishments with 1 to 9 employees, the quits rate decreased, while the layoffs and discharges rate increased. The job openings rate, hire rate, and total separations rate changed little. For establishments with 5,000 or more employees, the job openings, hires, total separations, quits, and layoffs and discharges rates showed little or no change.
June 2024 Revisions
The number of job openings for June was revised down by 274,000 to 7.9 million, the number of hires was revised down by 93,000 to 5.2 million, and the number of total separations was revised down by 11,000 to 5.1 million. Within separations, the number of quits was revised down by 68,000 to 3.2 million, and the number of layoffs and discharges was revised up by 62,000 to 1.6 million. (Monthlyrevisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey estimates for August 2024 are scheduled to be released on Tuesday, October 1, 2024, at 10:00 a.m. (ET).
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