April Job Market Trends Indicate a Gradual Cooling in Employment

📊 April 2025 Employment Situation Report (BLS)

·        Slowing Wage Growth: Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% in April, a deceleration from previous months, indicating easing wage pressures.

·        Elevated U-6 Unemployment Rate: The U-6 rate, encompassing underemployment and discouraged workers, remained elevated at 7.8%, approximately 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year.

·        Financial Activities Employment: Employment in financial activities continued to trend up in April (+14,000). The industry has added 103,000 jobs since its employment trough in April 2024.

📈 March 2025 JOLTS Report

·        Job Openings Rate Steady: The job openings rate held steady at 4.3% in March, with a notable decrease of 36,000 openings in the federal government sector.

April’s jobs report showed the U.S. economy added 177,000 jobs, beating expectations of 130,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, and wages were up 0.2% month-over-month, translating to a 3.8% gain year-over-year. That said, February and March were revised down by a combined 58,000 jobs. Even with those downward revisions, we continue to see steady gains in the healthcare, transportation, and warehousing space.

On the demand side, the March JOLTS report showed 7.2 million open jobs, a sharp drop of 901,000 from a year ago, and the lowest level we’ve seen since September 2020. The steady decline in job openings over the last year signals a more cautious employer mindset.  This could start influencing the Fed’s outlook on rates moving forward.

Within government, federal government employment declined by 9,000 in April, following a loss of 4,000 jobs in March. (Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)  State and local government hiring is up, thus the positive overall number.

For a deeper dive….

·       A more encompassing measure of unemployment (U6) that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons was little changed at 7.8%.

·       Prime age labor force participation rate (ages 25-54) was up .3% 83.6%.

·       The overall labor force participation held was up .1% to 62.6%.  This is still .8% below the level of February 2020.

·       In April, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 6 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $36.06. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.8 percent. In April, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and

nonsupervisory employees rose by 10 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $31.06.

·       The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.3 hours in April. In manufacturing, the average workweek edged down by 0.2 hour to 40.0 hours, and overtime was unchanged at 2.9 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls remained at 33.8 hours in April.

·       APD reported that 62,000 jobs were added in April.

Source: ADP, BLS, CNBC, Fox News

JOB OPENINGS AND LABOR TURNOVER – MARCH 2025

The number of job openings was little changed at 7.2 million in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires held at 5.4 million, and total separations changed little at 5.1 million. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) were unchanged and layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) edged down.

This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the total nonfarm sector, by industry, and by establishment size class. Job openings include all positions that are open on the last business day of the month. Hires and separations include all changes to the payroll during the entire month.

Job Openings

The number of job openings was little changed at 7.2 million in March but was down by 901,000 over the year. The job openings rate, at 4.3 percent, changed little over the month. The number of job openings decreased in federal government (-36,000).

Hires

In March, the number and rate of hires were unchanged at 5.4 million and 3.4 percent, respectively. The number of hires was little changed in all industries in March.

Separations

Total separations include quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations include separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm.

The number and rate of total separations in March were little changed at 5.1 million and 3.2 percent, respectively. Total separations increased in state and local government, excluding education (+28,000) but decreased in federal government (-8,000).

In March, the number of quits was unchanged at 3.3 million. The quits rate was little changed at 2.1 percent. Quits decreased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-49,000).

In March, the number of layoffs and discharges edged down to 1.6 million and the rate was little changed at 1.0 percent. Layoffs and discharges decreased in retail trade (-66,000) and in federal government (-11,000). Layoffs and discharges increased in state and local government, excluding education (+17,000).

The number of other separations was little changed at 247,000 in March.

Establishment Size Class

In March, establishments with 1 to 9 employees and establishments with 5,000 or more employees showed little or no change in job openings, hires, and separations rates.

February 2025 Revisions

The number of job openings for February was revised down by 88,000 to 7.5 million, the number of hires was revised down by 26,000 to 5.4 million, and the number of total separations was revised up by 55,000 to 5.3 million. Within separations, the number of quits was revised up by 55,000 to 3.3 million, and the number of layoffs and discharges was revised down by 10,000 to 1.8 million.

(Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)

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The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey estimates for April 2025 are scheduled to be released on Tuesday, June 3, 2025, at 10:00 a.m. (ET).